September 2019 Naples Real Estate Market Report
September 2019 Naples Real Estate Market Report Brought To You By Barry Brown
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate
August results are in and sales are mixed, inventory is down and prices are trending down. This is all pretty much as expected given the cyclical nature of the Naples market. My complete September 2019 Naples Real Estate Market Report is as follows:
Closed sales are up 1.4% for the year while dropping from 840 to 789 units in August or 6.1%. This is 6.6% better than the 740 units that were sold last August and 5.0 % better than the prior 12 months. At the same time the number of months of inventory dropped from 6.3 to 6.2 . This closely follows the prior 12 months and is pretty much a balanced inventory that does not favor either buyers or sellers.
The number of homes on the market dropped from 5,115 to 4,793 or 6.3%. However this is 111 units or 2.4% higher than August of last year. At the same time the median days to sell a home dropped from 77 to 75 days which is 6 days higher than last August.
There is no question that prices are trending downward but that is normal for this time of year. The median sales prices was down $9,000 at $320,000 or 2.7%, although it was the same as August of last year. The average sales price was down 11.4% from last month at $521,450 but up 4.0% from August of last year. Note that the median price is much better indicator of prices than the average.
We start to get a better idea as we narrow this down by price range and housing type. This is very much a mixed bag as 3 out of 5 prices by price range are up while prices by housing type show one up, two down and two even. However this is not a concern as prices for the last five years have increased by the start of the season.
An even better picture begins to emerge when we look at price trends by community and housing type. However this can still be misleading as it does not consider condition, upgrades, furnished or unfurnished, view, building or complex or an exceedingly high or low sale, etc. If you want to know what your home is really worth you need to get a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) from a knowledgeable realtor.
List prices have been trending downwards as they always do in the summer but should start to increase in the fall. The sales to list price ratio is holding steady in the 96% range which means that sellers are a long way from a fire sale.
An article on the internet titled “50 Housing Markets That Are Turning Ugly” listed Naples as the 40th worst market and also included 14 other Florida Markets. I take exception with this ranking for a number of reasons. First of all the list price decline over the last two years was 4.2% not 8.8%. Next I question using any of the summer months as prices are always at their lowest point and do not accurately reflect the Naples Market. Then I question why list price was used instead of the sales price as it shows a 2.8% gain and is a much better market indicator. And finally I question using averages instead of medians, as an average can easily be distorted by an exceedingly high or low sale.
The question as always is, where is the market going? All year I have been projecting year end appreciation in the 3% range, now I am not so sure. Not with all of the extremely negative coverage that affects the real estate market, especially that of Hurricane Dorian. I understand the importance of keeping people informed but the over the top coverage to get ratings is reprehensible. For example, a reporter at one of the networks was wearing his slicker and going on about how dangerous it was when the camera panned to his right and caught people in shorts and t-shirts lined up along a fence watching the waves. Needless to say, it panned immediately back to the reporter.
And this does not mention all of the climate change reporting and how the oceans are going to rise flooding the coastal areas. One has to wonder why our former president just spent $14.9 million on an ocean front home on Martha’s Vineyard.
Hopefully all of the negative reporting will not have a long term lasting effect but we will have to watch the next few months as many of the people I talk with are concerned about hurricanes and or rising sea levels. Please note that I am not saying that what happened in the Bahamas was not a tragedy, as it was and I encourage everybody to contribute what they can to help those people who have lost everything.
I hop my September 2019 Naples Real Estate Market Report has been helpful and informative. If I can be of any assistance, please let me know.
Barry L. Brown
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate
550 Fifth Avenue South
Naples, Florida 34112
P.S. If you are thinking of putting your home on the market and would like a no obligation Comparative Market Analysis, please let me know. I would love the opportunity to earn your business. If you know of anybody who is looking to buy or sell, feel free to share my September 2019 Naples Real Estate Market Report with them. You might also want to visit my website, www.barry4homes.net, as an updated market report with more community trends is posted every month. If you would like me to add any additional communities to my web site report, just drop me a know and I will me more than happy to do so.
The opinions are those of the author and should not be considered to be a specific recommendation. They along with the data are presented to help you make an informed decision. The source of the data is the Sunshine MLS and Naples Board of Realtors.