January 2019 Naples Real Estate Market Report

January 2019 Naples Real Estate Market Report


January 2019 Naples Real Estate Market Report
Brought To You By Barry Brown
Broker Associate
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate
239-298-0522

Despite how the pundits spin it, the Naples Real Estate Market in 2018 was relatively flat. Yes, sales were up, but not as much as one would think compared to the amount of new construction sold. The number of homes on the market were up, which is not a bad thing, and prices were flat to marginally up. Overall the resale market was neutral for both sellers and buyers for the last nine months of the year. 2019 is off to a good start. The number of units sold, the number of homes on the market and the average and median sales prices were all up.

The complete January 2019 Naples Real Estate Market Report is as follows:

The number of units for sale ended the year at 6,054 which was up 17.2% over 2017   This increased by 10.6% in January to 6,694.   This increase is nothing to be alarmed about as it provides an adequate supply entering the season. I expect this to drop below 5,000 units by the end of the summer as it has for the last six years. Anything above the mid 4,000’s is good, however it becomes difficult to find a buyer a nice place when it drops into mid 3,000’s.

The year ended with a 9.3 month supply which increased to 11.9 months in January. The lowest during 2018 was 5.6 months in May which was very close to a seller’s market. I would expect the same trend this year with the supply dropping into the high to mid fives by the start of the summer.

The number of homes sold increased by 5.2% ending the year at 9,651 units This is the second year that sales have been up after the high in 2014 of 10,229. Even though January sales were down 114 units at 586, I expect 2019 to come in around the same number as last year. It is worth mentioning that new construction represents close to 15% of reported sales and I emphasize reported, as new sales of pre or in process construction are rarely reported.   I don’t see this trend continuing in the long run as we are running out of land and there are not any major new developments coming online.

Prices for the year ended up between 1.7% and 3.2% depending on how one measures. The December 2018 median sales price was 1.7% higher than December 2017, the fourth quarter median was 1.6% higher than the fourth quarter of 2017 and the full year median sales price was 3.2% higher than 2017. When one considers that the full year inflation rate was 2.9%, sales prices for 2018 when adjusted were basically flat. 2019 is off to a good start with the average sales price up 30.6% and the median up 1.1%.

When we look at 2018 a little closer, we see nice gains for the first four months of the year before prices dropping in May.   The average price per square foot followed the same trend starting the year at $298 per square foot then dropping to $241 per square foot. As with the average sales price, the average price per square foot showed a nice gain at $263.00. Also positive is that the sales to list price ratio continues to hover in the 96% range which means that sellers are holding firm and not giving their homes away.

Looking at prices by dollar range and housing type shows much the same picture, although it is important to remember that the percentages can be distorted by some very large or small sales when comparing periods.  

January 2019 Naples Real Estate Market Report - Sales Prices by Housing Type & Price Range Table

As always, a better picture begins to emerge when we look at list and sales prices by community and housing type.  Note that I am showing 60 month price trends instead of the usual 12 as I thought that looking at prices over a longer period would be interesting and show how various community/housing types have performed over time.

When looking at the future, one has to consider the list price trend which has been trending upwards since July. If sellers continue to hold firm this will be a positive throughout the year.  

January 2019 Naples Real Estate Market Report - Naples Median Price Trends

The question as always is: “what does the future hold?” First of all, even with the experts forecasting a slowdown for 2019, there is no reason to think that sales in Naples will be lower than last year.   The same should be true for prices which generally reach their peak in May or June and then drop off slightly through the end of the year. List prices follow a similar pattern, peaking in January and then dropping off till the fall when sellers begin pricing for the upcoming season. As long as they remain strong and the sales to list price ratio continues in the 96% range, I see prices remaining strong throughout the season.   The National Association of Realtors is forecasting appreciation for the US housing market in the 2.2% range while other experts are closer to or at 3%. In that list prices have been tending upwards and that we still have a lot of new construction, I am closer to the 3% number.  

In summary, If you are looking to sell, there are people who dream of owning a home in Naples and will be looking for next season. If you are looking to buy, now is a great time as you will have a nice selection to choose from and prices are lower than they will be next year.

I hope my January 2019 Naples Real Estate Market Report has been helpful and informative. If I can be of any assistance, please let me know.

Best Regards,

Barry

Barry L. Brown
Broker Associate
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate
550 Fifth Avenue South
Naples, Florida 34112
239-298-0522
www.barry4homes.net
barry4homes@aol.com

 

P.S.  Please feel free to share my January 2019 Naples Real Estate Market Report with any friends, family or neighbors who may be interested.  If you are thinking of putting your home on the market and would like a no obligation Comparative Market Analysis, please give me a call. I would love the opportunity to earn your business. You might also want to visit my website, www.barry4homes.net, as an updated market report with more community trends is posted every month.

The opinions are those of the author and should not be considered to be a recommendation. They along with the data are presented to help you make an informed decision. The source of the data is the Naples MLS and Board of Realtors.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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