Naples´ 2011 Year End Market Report

January 15th, 2012

 2011YearEndMktRpt

The numbers are in and 2011 was indeed a good year.  Closed sales were up 5% for the year and have been up four years in a row.  Pending sales were up 12% for the year and were up 16% in December. As I have said before, if sales in the rest of the country were as good as those in Naples, our real estate crisis would be well on its way to recovery. 

Equally impressive is that sales have been up across the board.  Whether you are talking about price point or housing type, all show gains for the year. 

Obviously, the driving factor has been prices which have been basically flat across the board the last three years.  Buyers have realized they are at the bottom and are taking advantage of today´s bargains.  Baby Boomers are buying in advance of retiring, retirees are returning to the market in greater numbers and foreign sales remain strong.  Between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2011, Florida welcomed 256,000 new residents, or roughly 560 new Floridians each day, and this does not count those buying a vacation home or  investment properties.   


Obviously, the driving factor has been prices which have been basically flat across the board the last three years.  Buyers have realized they are at the bottom and are taking advantage of today´s bargains.  Baby Boomers are buying in advance of retiring, retirees are returning to the market in greater numbers and foreign sales remain strong.  Between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2011, Florida welcomed 256,000 new residents, or roughly 560 new Floridians each day, and this does not count those buying a vacation home or  investment properties.   

This downward pressure on prices will be offset to a large degree by the large numbers of distressed properties (short sales and foreclosures) that will be coming on the market during 2012.  Bank of America closed more than 100,000 short sales in 2011 and expects a 60% increase in 2012. If this is true for  Bank of America, it's true for the other banks as well. 

According to Jed Kolko, Trulia Chief Economist, delinquencies will go down, but foreclosures will go up.  Many borrowers fell behind in their payments in 2010 and 2011 and are still in limbo due to the robo-signing controversy.  This means that many delinquent loans have not yet entered the foreclosure process and even fewer have moved all the way through.  Once a settlement is made with the banks, a new wave of foreclosures will hit the market.  This will be somewhat tempered by the fact that many banks are promoting short sales. Florida is a judicial state requiring all foreclosures to go through the courts, and the banks are slowly releasing foreclosures to the market so as to not create a glut which would further drive down prices. 

Given the above, I don´t see much change and expect that sales of distressed properties will remain in the 40% range.   

 

Today´s low interest rates offer a historic opportunity for those who are looking to buy in the near future.  The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) mortgage rate forecast, predicts that the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will decline from 4.3% in the third quarter of 2011 to 4.1% in the first and second quarters of 2012. After that it is predicted to gradually rise to 4.4% by the fourth quarter of 2012 and to 4.9% by the fourth quarter of 2013. This is significant as a 1% rate increase on every $100,000 for a 30 year fixed loan equates to an increase in the monthly payment of $59.40 or an additional $21,686.27 over the life of the mortgage. 

The net of the above is that I expect prices to remain stable through the season and then increase slightly as we enter the 2012/2013 seasons.  This is echoed by both John Tucillo, Chief Economist for the Florida Realtors® and Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief Economists for the National Association of Realtors®.

"Our state is in a mini-recovery," said Dr. John Tuccillo at the state association's 2012 Real Estate and Economic  Forecast Conference.  "Sales are trending up, listing inventories are falling, the supply of lender-related properties has stabilized, and we are seeing multiple offers on homes in some local markets. I think you´ll see prices begin to move upward, but not by very much. The large amount of distressed housing has established a price base that, so far, has remained stable, and as a result, prices will increase only marginally."

Dr. Lawrence Yun said many Florida markets are showing sharp drops in inventories of homes for sale ? a sign that demand is picking up and prices are stabilizing.  Noting the state's powerful appeal to international buyers, Yun said he was particularly optimistic about the outlook for South Florida. "Don't be surprised to see a gain in home prices in the Naples market in the next 18 months," he stated.

In summary, I believe that if you are looking to buy, now is absolutely the best time.  There are great values in every community and at every price point.  If you wait, you may find that the really nice properties will be gone and you could be looking at an increase in prices and the cost of money.

If you are looking to sell, are willing to price at today´s prices and your home shows well, then by all means put it on the market.  It will sell, as evidenced by the strong market we are currently seeing.  However, remember that it is going to take at least 10 years for prices to match those reached during the boom, i.e. historically appreciation runs at 3% to 4% plus the rate of inflation and this is in a healthy economy when there is not an excess of homes on the market or a large number of distressed properties.
 
I hope the above has been helpful and informative.  If I can be of any assistance, please let me know.  

Best Regards,

Barry 

Barry L Brown
Associate Broker
Coldwell Banker
239-298-0522
www.barry4homes.net
barry4homes@aol.com

 

P.S.  If you are thinking of putting your home on the market and would like a no obligation Comparative Market Analysis, please let me know.  If you know of anybody who is looking to buy or sell, please feel free to share this information with them.



This report discusses the overall Naples real estate market and not any specific property, community or area.  The source of the data is the Sunshine MLS and Naples Board of Realtors.  Note that I have excluded manufactured homes and units under $50,000 to make the report more representative of the Naples market.  The opinions are that of the author and should not be considered to be a specific recommendation.  They along with the data are presented to help you make an informed decision.